white_hart | (no subject)

I always feel that I should prefer Twitter to Facebook for political discussions, but then it goes and reminds me just how easy it is to whip up outrage over almost nothing. Like this morning, when I started to see this tweet being retweeted across my timeline:

Tory minister on #r4today says they will have a vote on reducing time limits on abortion in exchange for DUP support.
— CarolineJMolloy (@carolinejmolloy) 10 June 2017

I have to say that my first thought was "well, yes, but they gave the Lib Dems a referendum on PR in exchange for their support, and look how that turned out", because I'm not convinced Tory coalition promises are worth the paper they're written on. But then I looked at the Grauniad's liveblog for today, from which I discovered that (a) the "Tory minister" was actually former Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Owen Paterson (he of "the badgers have moved the goalposts" fame), and what he actually said was:

I don’t see many major social issues coming up in the next parliament.

You might get a debate I suppose on further reduction of abortion times as medical science advances.

But the stuff you mention like gay rights and all that, which you’re probably referring to, that is all devolved.

It’s not only a free vote issue, most of this, but it’s nearly all devolved and that’s down to the politicians in Northern Ireland to resolve.

And it's not as though there haven't been votes on whether to reduce the abortion time limit before. Most recently, in 2008, under a Labour government. None of which is to say that this isn't an issue I feel strongly about, and I'm very pleased that my new MP has already tweeted her opposition to any proposal to reduce abortion time limits, but it isn't actually the Awful Thing that the Twitter hot-takes are making it appear.

***

And if you are in dire need of a break from politics, may I recommend checking out Mr Darcy's inbox? (Anne Elliot's is also worth a look.)

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I think that's actually another version of the same story I was originally posting about, which I read as 'random Tory MP best known for making a really stupid remark about badgers is invited to speculate wildly on Today programme as they need to fill the time somehow and no-one actually has a clue what will happen' rather than 'actual policy announcement'. On the other hand, if the prospect sparks enough outrage to make May realise what an unpopular move actually doing it would be, I don't think that would be a bad thing ;-)

ETA: I've also seen a post from Robert Peston on FB which says "Sources close to the prime minister say that she understands the concerns of liberal Tories like Ruth Davidson about the possible price of a deal with the DUP, and she will not offer them any promises to reduce the rights of the lesbian, gay, bisexual, trangender or intersexual community, or to reduce womens' rights to abortion.". So I think really, nobody knows right now.

Edited 2017-06-10 18:17 (UTC)

I've said a version of this before...

I think it's reasonably likely that DUP involvement would torpedo any attempt to increase access to elective abortion in Northern Ireland, but that it is very unlikely that there would be any "promises to reduce the rights of the lesbian, gay, bisexual, trangender or intersexual community, or to reduce womens' rights to abortion" in the rest of the UK, and it costs May nothing to make that statement. Any such legislation would have to pass the Commons, there'd have to be a free vote on it, and a more Conservative HOC that voted for equal marriage recently isn't going to suddenly backtrack. No UK government is interested in introducing legislation to restrict abortion - it would be time-consuming and risky, there is nothing for the Conservatives to gain, and the DUP won't care. What won't happen is legislation for improved rights to abortion, for LGBT people, for women, but that wasn't going to happen anyway. After all, they're going to be very busy with Brexit.

TL:DR I understand why people are worried, because the Conservatives are awful and the DUP worse. But I think that outside Northern Ireland it isn't likely to be an issue. Inside Northern Ireland, OTOH, obviously is much more of a concern. And then there's the whole issue of the peace process.

Yes, that's very much my thinking. And I'm still not convinced this Parliament will last six months, anyway.

I see they've now announced a confidence and supply deal, rather than a full coalition. And the BBC article I read said that their sources thought the DUP would want the pensions triple lock and winter fuel allowance kept, rather than any social legislation (presumably they figure their core demographic is 60+).

Oh, that would make a lot of sense now you mention it. And as the Tories are going to have to climb down on their manifesto around pensions anyway before the next election, they can promise it :-)

It's ironic, given that the DUP don't believe in dinosaurs, that most of them appear to be dinosaurs.

I read (well skimmed) their manifesto before e-mailing my MP and it is pensions and winter fuel allowances and NI tourism.

I don't think they could actually force the House of Commons to undo all the women's rights, environmental and LGBT progress of the past decades but an alliance shifts the boundaries of what sort of opinions are acceptable in the same way that the Brexit vote made it possible for people to reveal their racism in public. There was an English Tory voter on Any Answers yesterday saying an alliance with the DUP would be good because Christians* are persecuted by being unable to hold their ~~homophobic~~ religious views in the workplace. It shifts the climate rightwards and we've seen how quickly that can happen without us noticing.

And that's quite apart from it making it impossible for the UK government to mediate in NI.

Anyway at the point of typing they don't seem to be managing to agree...

*I know far from all Christians

I see May's advisers who suggested that particular piece of legislation (and what a fool she was to spring that on the party at the last minute) have both had to walk.

And there I was thinking that I knew where the buck stops.........

May's already promised Ruth Davidson, leader of the Scottish Tories (as you'll know, they had a bit of a resurgence this time round) who, incidentally, is lesbian, that there'd be no changes but as a trans woman myself, I've been thrown off the sledge enough times over the past forty odd years to be taking that with a very large pinch of salt.

I'm the granddaughter of colliers and I don't trust Tories an inch! Such rights as I have, I got from a Labour government back in 2004.

Oh, I definitely think that the Tories would throw trans people under a bus if they thought it would be to their political advantage (am northerner). It's just that in the current circumstances, I'm not convinced that political advantage is there. At least, outside Northern Ireland. Inside Northern Ireland is a different matter. But I certainly sympathise with people being worried, it's not like either party doesn't have form.

It doesn't look as though a deal is one as the Tories are starting to lie like crazy about there being one and the blond bombshell has started his games, not that he'd be any improvement.

I'm banking on having to do it all again in a few months.

It's now around a number of prints.

I don't trust May but then as a veteran of the WSG's in the '84 miners' strike I don't trust Tories. Any Tories!

I don't trust them either, and I do think allying with the DUP is definitely something to be concerned about because they are a bunch of bigoted loons who manage to make most of the Tories look quite restrained by comparison!

Quite.

I still remember what Paisley said in the HoC about me and people like me- I was there when he said it and that sort of thing haunts one.